Two top U.S. hurricane forecasters, revered like rock stars in Deep South hurricane country, are quitting the practice because it doesn’t work.
William Gray and Phil Klotzbach say a look back shows their past 20 years of forecasts had no value.
These guys clearly have their professional integrity. Now, if we could just get macroeconomic forecasters to quit their jobs.... It's really the same basic problem: using abstract models to predict complex events in a contingent world. And they perform terribly as well. Economists know this, but I think they continue b/c people ask for their advice. See Steve Levitt on this....
If what he says is true and widely recognized by the academic world, I wonder if there are still people teaching macroeconomics in university? Despite the belief that it is basically voodoo and in essence completely unable to make reliable predictions, I rather expect that it continues to be regarded as a legitimate 'science'. A very sad state of affairs indeed.
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