Daniel Byman makes a pessimistic forecast for the Arab Winter:
The most dangerous outcome of the Arab Winter, however, is the spread of chaos and violence. In Syria, where thousands have already died, the body count may grow exponentially as sectarian killings spread and peaceful protesters take up arms. In Yemen, the resignation of Ali Abdullah Saleh has not ended the turmoil throughout the country. And Libya, lacking strong institutions and divided by tribal and political factions, may never get its new government off the ground.
AM: Byman rightly highlights some facts that may be unpleasant for supporters of democracy. First, dictators and strongmen sometimes do a better job of maintaining order and peace within weak states. For example: the removal of Hussein in Iraq unleashed massive sectarian violence. This does not mean that democracy is not a laudable long term goal, only that it may not be the best system for government for weak states which face problems consolidating political order.
Second, democratic governance may not mean more 'peace' between countries. For example, should radical organizations come to gain control over the Egyptian or Jordian governments, Byman notes, this could lead to a deterioration in relations with Israel.
