Political scientists and international affairs wonks are notoriously unskilled at prognostication. Did anyone predict that, last year, we’d be at war with Libya? Of course not. That being said, it’s still fun to try and predict the next big hotspot.
This Foreign Policy article has a list of possibilities for full blown war:
1. Iran/Israel
2. Syria
3. Pakistan
4. Burma
5. Burundi
6. Democratic Republic of Congo
7. Venezuela
8. Afghanistan
9. Yemen
10. Central Asia
11. Kenya/Somalia
12. Tunisia
AM: Of these, I’d bet on DRC, Afghanistan, Yemen, Burundi, mostly because the either are currently experiencing some level of civil war, or have very recently.
I’d bet against Iran/Israel, Syria, Pakistan, and Venezuela.
In the case of Iran, lots of international actors will be trying to avoid war. I think it would be politically difficult for Israel to do this. My guess is that there is no political will or capacity in the U.S. for this type of conflict, either.
Syria: will the Assad regime fall of its own accord? If this happens, will the transition be peaceful? It seems that if there was going to be any international intervention like Libya, it would have happened by now.
Venezuela: this one would really surprise me although criminal violence is pretty bad, the most likely type of war would be a Mexico-type situation. For all Chavez’ attempts to help out the poor , he’s done little in terms of improving the security situation.
Pakistan: more of the same. Nukes; big army; lots of foreign aid, and the centre of the war on terror. Hard to imagine a full blown collapse, but easy to imagine more of what we’ve seen.
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