I’ve been thinking a little bit about social science, bias, and ideology. I’ve come to be of the opinion that there is no firm ground in the social and economic sciences. Ideology, cognitive bias, and social and intellectual investments pollute the thinking of all well-intentioned truth seekers. Worldviews are not easily changed.
This question is raised by Russ Roberts at econtalk/café hayek: here, here, and here. It’s particularly acute in macroeconomics; but also, as Taubes discusses in this podcast, in things like nutritional science and epidemiology.
Here are three of my ideologies: Atheism; Libertarianism; Vegetarianism
I’m pretty good at shooting down arguments against these beliefs, and I’m relatively adept at marshaling supporting evidence. But really, I probably fall prey to all sorts of cognitive biases. I’m certainly harder on opposing worldviews than I am on my own. I tend to follow thinkers of like mind. And while I try to follow opposing views as well, I do so to a lesser extent. I also know lots of like-minded people. They know me as a person who espouses these ideas. My worldview is part of my identity. I am, in a sense, invested. This is not to say that I’m wrong, but only to say I’m biased, and I’m invested in my worldviews. If I were wrong about any of them I might not realize it. I imagine that It’s harder for scientists and others who are professionally invested in a pet hypothesis or theory.
And, gentle reader, we are the same. I'm not some extreme ideologue. If you’re reading this, it’s likely that you have a worldview. You’re invested in your opinions on certain things. You suffer from cognitive biases. You probably dismiss evidence against your worldview and actively seek out evidence supporting it. Don’t lie. Be honest.
I’d like to know, for anyone who is invested in a worldview of some sort, what type of evidence would it take to convince you that you are wrong? If you are an atheist, a devout Christian, a vegan abolitionist, a socialist, a libertarian, an anarchist, or whatever your outlook: what evidence would persuade you to abandon your opinion?
I'm pretty sure if most people found themselves in the polar opposite tax bracket, they'd find that suddenly their worldview had shifted considerably.
ReplyDeleteFrom my observations, wealth does not necessarily predispose one to any particular worldview.
ReplyDeleteTry to think about what (in terms of evidence) you'd need to see to change your mind on something: For example, I'm an atheist, but I might change my mind if God talked to me. But, even in that hypothetical world, i'm not sure: I might just check myself into a mental institution.
I'm a Keynsian, unlike you AM. My view is just based on the evidence that government spendingworks not on the ideology. As a rational thinking person you should abide by evidence only. I'm also an atheist and couldn't imaginem yself proven wrong. I suppose if there as an afterlife that would do it.
ReplyDeleteHM
I would need empirical evidence that conclusively proved beyond a reasonable doubt that what I believed was not true. I actually have a good example of this that happened recently to me. There was some program on TV that, among other things, stated that they had found the 'gay' gene. So this meant that homosexuals were born that way - it was not a choice they made. Up until then I had believed that being gay was more of a lifestyle choice than a biological predisposition. This evidence forced me to change my view on homosexuality.
ReplyDeleteI feel that I am wiser for having learned this. I had heard it before, but this was the first time that someone had come out and said 'here is the empirical evidence to support my statement'. As a rational person, I could no longer hold on to the beliefs that I knew were wrong. It was difficult to let go of a long held idea and I could understand how it is hard for people to let go of their ideas (religion!).
As rational, thinking individuals, it's easy for us to say that wealth doesn't inform people's world views; however, I would argue that a large number of people are motivated toward world views that best protect their wallets. Lots of people vote simply for the person that will provide them with the biggest tax break, regardless of that person's stance on social issues, for example.
ReplyDeleteAs for something that might shatter my beliefs, I too would need to have an actual conversation with God; and he would need to say things I couldn't possibly already know--that way I could be sure that it wasn't a hallucination.
Similarly, if someone were to show me an example of Jay Leno actually being funny, that would rock my world view to its very core.
HM: Ok, how do you deal with the effect of the 2008 stimulus on the U.S. economy? UE went up, contrary to all predictions. Shouldn't you change your mind?
ReplyDeletehaha.. nice.
ReplyDeleteI had an existential crisis when I found out that Jack Layton had a PhD. (shudder).
I guess it's an empirical question. Do poor people vote for left wing parties? Do the rich support right wing politics? I doubt it is that simple, but I'd have to see some evidence to be sure.
AM: The stimulus in the U.S. worked but the problems was that it wasn't big enough. UE would have been worse without this. The CBO report proved it.
ReplyDeleteHM
I am a vegetarian for health and ethical reasons. Health matters to me and if major clinical studies started coming out that said animal protein was good or necessary I might introduce some into my diet. As it stands though i'm pretty sure the veggy style is better, and evidence backs it up. Look at "the China Study" for instance.
ReplyDeleteAm I too late to comment? I have always been late for pretty well everything else in my life, so this should come as no surprise. In fact, it is only what I would expect.
ReplyDeleteAnd that is the point with the phenomenon of bias. Everything we see and learn and interpret, we do so based on a learned expectation of what we should be seeing, learning, and interpreting. As the Bible says...all pre-ordained. Honestly, throughout childhood and into adult life, we are brain-washed by our parents, our social setting, our society. We are pawns. The values your parents gave you will stick to you for a lifetime, for good or bad. The rest of your efforts at some kind of independent thought are doomed for failure. Especially if you like your parents. Angela Pike
that's a depressing thought.
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