I’ve been thinking a little bit about social science, bias, and ideology. I’ve come to be of the opinion that there is no firm ground in the social and economic sciences. Ideology, cognitive bias, and social and intellectual investments pollute the thinking of all well-intentioned truth seekers. Worldviews are not easily changed.
This question is raised by Russ Roberts at econtalk/café hayek: here, here, and here. It’s particularly acute in macroeconomics; but also, as Taubes discusses in this podcast, in things like nutritional science and epidemiology.
Here are three of my ideologies: Atheism; Libertarianism; Vegetarianism
I’m pretty good at shooting down arguments against these beliefs, and I’m relatively adept at marshaling supporting evidence. But really, I probably fall prey to all sorts of cognitive biases. I’m certainly harder on opposing worldviews than I am on my own. I tend to follow thinkers of like mind. And while I try to follow opposing views as well, I do so to a lesser extent. I also know lots of like-minded people. They know me as a person who espouses these ideas. My worldview is part of my identity. I am, in a sense, invested. This is not to say that I’m wrong, but only to say I’m biased, and I’m invested in my worldviews. If I were wrong about any of them I might not realize it. I imagine that It’s harder for scientists and others who are professionally invested in a pet hypothesis or theory.
And, gentle reader, we are the same. I'm not some extreme ideologue. If you’re reading this, it’s likely that you have a worldview. You’re invested in your opinions on certain things. You suffer from cognitive biases. You probably dismiss evidence against your worldview and actively seek out evidence supporting it. Don’t lie. Be honest.
I’d like to know, for anyone who is invested in a worldview of some sort, what type of evidence would it take to convince you that you are wrong? If you are an atheist, a devout Christian, a vegan abolitionist, a socialist, a libertarian, an anarchist, or whatever your outlook: what evidence would persuade you to abandon your opinion?
